Declaring victory for the Linux desktop at the end of the day will based upon looking at market penetration of Linux based clients vs. Windows and other operating systems. I believe this is still the best measure but we may finally be able to declare this year the breakout of the Linux desktop.
When looking at operating system software adoption it is important to look at trends and not a single break through event that will signal that “we have made it.” It is kind of like economic forecasting – you look at a lot of leading indicators to decide whether we are heading towards an expansion or a recession; inflation, interest rates, productivity, employment rates, etc. It is worth applying this logic when looking at the Linux desktop. Based on just a cursory glance of news this week it is clear that all leading indicators suggest a significant expansion on the horizon.
Let’s look at each of these factors individually:
1. The Usability Breakthrough; the Linux desktop has finally reached functional equivalence with Windows and Mac OS. The perfect balance of simplicity and flexibility is still being refined, but for anyone who has used Ubuntu, OpenSuse, Fedora, GoS, Zonbu, or an Asus EEE PC; it is clear that a Linux desktop is able to match Apple or Windows when it comes to functionality and usability.
2. Device support. Long a complaint of the Linux desktop user, we are finally seeing broad coverage in driver support for almost every kind of hardware available. Kernel space has really licked almost all of these with only a few small holdouts in wireless and video. Now the focus is on user space configuration tools that enable Linux users to get full functionality out of the many devices supported on the platform.
3. Economics; In order to grow the PC market beyond the saturated markets in the west, the industry is moving towards low cost PC’s to grow the overall market place. Much of this growth is coming in from Asia where manufacturers are putting the squeeze on the high license fees Microsoft charges by opting for Linux instead. This year we are seeing Linux based PC’s from almost every major manufacturer including Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo and more. This price competition favors Linux heavily because Microsoft will always be reluctant to give up their cash cow of high license fees.
4. The Netbook breakthrough; The New York Times reported last week at Intel’s developer conference “Dozens and dozens of netbooks were shown,” and “computer makers saw for the first time “just how many competitors they have.”” According to a research analyst in Times article, these devices “could cost the same as a cell phone – or lower.” This is going to open huge new markets for Linux based devices.
5. The Seinfeld factor. Microsoft Vista is a gift to Linux. Windows is having a brand meltdown. Users are unsatisfied with the OS so much so that Microsoft is trying to enlist an American icon to help change peoples minds. While Seinfeld is great, Microsoft should know that the quickest way to ruin a brand is to increase advertising for a bad product.
6. The move to mobile. It is a quickly becoming a foregone conclusion that a large portion, if not a majority of users will access the internet through mobile devices in the future. The Linux desktop benefits from this. Google’s Android platform is based on the Linux Kernel, the LiMo Foundation’s efforts use glibc, Gnome, the kernel and more. Nokia has Linux based offerings. All of this will bring more developers, both commercial and non-commercial to the Linux desktop party.
7. Web 2.0. The fact that the desktop itself is less relevant is making Linux more relevant than ever. In a world where most people access their favorite applications through a browser it makes little sense to have an expensive and bloated OS underneath. Linux is really the only option here as Microsoft is unable to innovate and Apple rules the high end of the market.
8. Business users are starting to care. IBM’s recent announcement of a Lotus enabled Linux client shows that big business is finally waking up to the value of a Linux desktop effort. IBM in particular is worth paying attention to here. When they get behind a platform it can move markets.
There continues to be challenges. Lack of games on the Linux platform continues to be a weakness, Microsoft dominates this market and leverages their experience with the Xbox and their Xbox live service. The lack of availability of Microsoft Office or a reasonably compatible Office alternative is a subject to long to write about here but obviously hurts Linux in the short run. Finally, the need for pan industry cooperation along application standards is critical. The Linux desktop may constantly divide efforts along incompatible versions of the OS and prevent a unified front against Microsoft.
At the Linux Foundation we continue to see big changes afoot enabling the Linux desktop. We continue to support educating makers of devices about how to write drivers for Linux, we continue to support improving printing on Linux through our open printing project, we are looking to bring new developers to the platform through the Linux Developer Network and continue to provide a framework for desktop and mobile standardization through the Linux Standard Base.
Why is the desktop important? Because it is symbolic. It excites programmers, it is tangible to everyone, it easy accessible and easily understood by all. Linux is finally in a position to provide a choice to Microsoft’s long held monopoly. We should never lose site of the importance of inspiring people about just how far an open operating system can go.
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[…] Zemlin of the Linux foundation wrote a very good post on this year being the year of the Linux desktop breakthrough. One thing he did only mention marginally, but which I think is just as important for certain […]
I hope you’re right, Jim, as cross-platform desktop apps for Linux — with the help of the cloud — are virtually making Wine an anachronism. Another reason in Linux desktop’s favor is the sheer saturation of problem-solving for the platform, i.e., there’s not a problem that hasn’t been fixed and can easily be found via Google. Finally, if companies like Dell and Lenovo can further sell (and “drive”) laptop hardware with Linux, then all bets are off and you’ll see Linux adoption on the desktop continue to expand.
Let me put it this way: If I can make the switch, ANYONE can!
I think its more about packaging and usability as well. For example GIMP can do almost everything that Photoshop does for an average user. But it takes lots of time to understand how GIMP works. though tutorials are great but restricts user form using it. Yes, and I agree viable alternative to office is still missing. OOo does thing but sometimes in a difficult way. Make 20% of most used functions easy. And lastly fear. I see lots of people in India not switching to linux as its still attributed as techi’s system. Simple distro like Ubuntu may work. Lets see…:)
Every year, since 2002, there has been so article of how this is ‘The year of the Linux desktop’. And every year, without fail, Linux doesn’t take off, and the same people prep the same article for next year.
[…] This is the Year of the Linux Desktop Breakout Declaring victory for the Linux desktop at the end of the day will based upon looking at market penetration of Linux based clients vs. Windows and other operating systems. I believe this is still the best measure but we may finally be able to declare this year the breakout of the Linux desktop. […]
“The Linux desktop may constantly divide efforts along incompatible versions of the OS and prevent a unified front against Microsoft.”
I do agree but there is one thing which becomes more and more common: the patent minefield Mono, as its developers admitted. The core is open and standardized but to be compatible with MS, components are under an insecure MS license.
What I do not understand is that Mono is now included in most main repos and not as an extra, like codecs (see Ubuntu/Fedora as far as I know). It seems to be forced upon our throat and replicates like a virus with its increasing dependencies along every new whatever distro version.
I sure hope so. It’s been “The year for Linux” since I started using it in 1997-ish. In fact, I don’t want Linux to own a market — just enough share to do what Firefox did for the browser market would be enough.
Oh, and it should read
“…Office alternative is a subject TOO long to write about here…”
Playing games without having Windows is not anymore an issue. Just buy the 400$ Playstation 3, install a Linux distro on it and you’ll have a very powerful computer(with an 8-core CPU). Then you’ve got a blu-ray drive on a stylish machine. What’s wrong with doing so?
This prediction is all very well, but it is meaningless without defining what it means to “break out”. There is too much left unspecified:
Is its use in 5% of desktops a “breakout”? 10%? Whose metrics should we be using for the calculation? Or, if we are looking at growth, then how much growth constitutes a breakout, and using whose measurements?
Of course, advancing actual numbers, while brave, amounts to guesswork unless there are underlying numbers, borne of market share and trendings. This takes lot of work, and is probably the reason why the article is what it is.
Too simplistic.
Linux would breakout if sponsored well by platform providers, such as dell, lenovo, etc.
However, these companies still push vista on the majority of their platforms.
Microsoft would not stand down so easily to let Linux win the low-end market. It would certainly supply a cut down version, both in features and price, suitable for these platforms.
Most users still consider Microsoft/Windows as the standard.
Linux would eventually break out due to the amount of enthusiasm from its supporters, free software and the anti-corporate pro-human spirit of its community.
Year after year I read these ridiculous assessments that “Linux” was just reaching equality with Windows and Macintosh in user friendliness. GNU/Linux desktops passed that mark at least 5 years ago. And, about driver support being finally on par? Linux supports far more hardware than any other operating system–ever. It’s grown in leaps and bounds and the quality has also increased a lot in recent years, but its been there for quite a while. Particularly, Macs support only a small fraction of what Linux support.
While GNU/Linux distributions certain have areas of weakness for widespread consumer adaption, it’s not and has not been for at least 5 years user friendliness or lack of hardware support. Being good is only one aspect of the problem. Lots of crappy products become successful in the market place.
Can you buy a GNU/Linux system at the local computer store? Do you see them on display? You can find them on hp.com or dell.com, but even there its not an option for the vast majority of systems. Doesn’t Vista sell more expensive hardware? What CEO of these two corporations would, if they love their jobs, want to include an operating system that makes them less money? What retailer will want to sell software people can get for free? Where is the profit motive? It’s all anti-motive.
On the other hand, the EEE PC started a new trend selling a large number of UMPCs, a whole new class where Windows doesn’t make much sense. This is a market about quantity, not quality–as per profits are concerned. Even these you don’t often see in retail outlets. They want to sell the more expensive products and not be threatened by cheaper alternatives.
Imagine Linux at least 5 years ago…it was crude, now Linux has emerged as good as windows and mac and in some cases even more good…now think couple of years ahead you would surely see Linux innovation to far exceed windows and mac, at that stage it would be windows and mac trying to catch up Linux. And the cool Linux mobiles emerging. I am imagining that day.
NO NO. Most of today’s dists still have the Win 3.1 feel to them…dated, cludgy in some cases. Look to OSX for a real interface. I know, I know, Linux is best served by working “under the hood”. I went that route with DOS-to-Win, but don’t want to do it anymore. Unfortunately, GNOME still forces me to do it sometimes…and KDE is frowned upon, for some reason, when it’s really done a better (i.e. MORE INTERESTING) job with the desktop environ. To get more user’s the desktop environ should be the FIRST TARGET. Give them an interface out of the box, not one where turning on 3D effects (Compiz) get’s rid of the Restart and Shutdown options because they’re using and ATI Proprietary video driver!
MS still produces the best all-purpose environment…monopolistic practices or not.
Sorry but it’s true.
It pains me to say it, because I love Linux, but I agree wholeheartedly with Frankie Zetterower’s sentiments.
As long as we have the sort of problems such as those reported at http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=810447 (as unfortunately time and time again we do), there is never going to be a “Year of the Linux Desktop Breakout”
What celebrity did the Linux Foundation hire to inform people that they had a choice in operating systems?
Office surely is not the big issue if we talk about using Linux on the enterprise desktop. It’s more about the whole ecosysteme - Active Directory, Exchange and so on. 70 percent of enterprise applications today (estimate by Gartner) are pure Windows applications. So why should any company switch to Linux? A horrible and very expensive project if you consider the applications.
Gartner estimates a global Linux desktop revenue in 2008 of app. 470 million dollars. The Linux server market will account for 1.57 billions.
Linux will surely not see a 5 percent market share on the enterprise desktop within the next couple of years. That has not so much to do with Linux itself, but with the established infrastructures in the wild.
Further reading on this (in German):
http://www.computerwoche.de/knowledge_center/open_source/1855849/
I would hope … but PTC discontinued LInux support for Pro/ENGINEER Wildfire 4 .I tested it , and found it was better than windows version. Without high/end CAD , lInux hardly can fight for desktops in companies.
There are too much people that if would have some aplications like adobe suit, or autodesk suit their move to linux because this work tools are enought expensives and need to work an SO that use resources more eficiently, i agree than the other great factor is games, i see some moves in this area, but, there are not enought. i guess the office replacement need more work but it are reasonable fine, having in mind that we want a MS Office copy.
I’m not convinced about the desktop breakout but the netbook breakout is underway. Microsoft is busy discounting XP to try to hold Linux at bay until these machines are powerful enough to run Vista or its replacement. The Asus N10 looks like the first of these.
It’s too bad Dell couldn’t ship Ubuntu with the Inspiron 9, so we still don’t have a major hardware vendor shipping a netbook with linux (I couldn’t wait any longer but I have no regrets about plunking for an Asus 1000 now running Ubuntu; see link). I wanted a laptop with Ubuntu pre-installed. I doubt I’ll buy a computer again that will not run my preferred OS–whatever it is at the time.
With Vista effectively dead in the water the critical period for Linux will be the time between a major vendor shipping Linux on a laptop and vista’s replacement shipping. That’s the breakout window.
I’m sorry to say that here in London it seems that XP is outselling Xandros on Asus netbooks, at the moment, mainly for the same reason that Internet Explorer has most of the browser market: inertia. Google’s brand, Chrome, and the move to web apps are the key to changing this. In the cloud Microsoft will (should?) be just another player. It’ll have to earn its profits instead of just enjoying the returns on network effects.
http://wombatdiet.net/2008/09/05/asus-eee-pc-1000-with-ubuntu-chrome-an-inflection-point/
[…] is the Year of the Linux Desktop Breakout (heard it […]
Are you all MS (paid) astroturfers or what ?
Linux is about freedom, MS is about expensive proprietary lock-in.
I want a PC without being forced to pay the MS tax, which is illegal in many countries.
I do not want EU to implement (US-like) software patents instead of current copyrights.
This is all about freedom and as long as there are willing people around the world to protect and promote it, MS will continue to slowly decline whatever the cash and energy it will throw to subvert the OpenSource movement.
[i]mainly for the same reason that Internet Explorer has most of the browser market[/i]
What world do you live in?
The key to Linux adoption is through Education; thats Education not education. How many state schools have very tight budgets and still pay for Microsoft licences? Why is it my kids are taught to use Microsoft products and parents think they need to buy Office for their kids to use at home. Get Linux into schools, get the kids using Linux and then we have tomorrow.
[…] This is the Year of the Linux Desktop Breakout - “Declaring victory for the Linux desktop at the end of the day will based upon looking at market penetration of Linux based clients vs. Windows and other operating systems. I believe this is still the best measure but we may finally be able to declare this year the breakout of the Linux desktop.” (linux-foundation.org - Aug 26, 2008) […]