It is hard for the executive director of the Linux Foundation to feel bad for Microsoft, but they are having a bad week while Linux continues to move forward in innovative ways into new markets for computing. Let’s take a look at the difference between Microsoft and Linux this week:

Monday: Microsoft starts its week with a front page story in the Wall St. Journal titled, “Microsoft Battles Low-Cost Rival for Africa.” In the article Microsoft is documented engaging in questionable practices against a Linux competitor that is springing up across Africa not because of any corporate conspiracy, but because it is free and open.

Tuesday: Microsoft reveals “Windows 7” which is widely regarded as an attempt to right the wrong that is Vista. Headlines were brutal: Infoworld: “Windows 7: The ‘dog food’ tastes bad”, Dallas News: “Microsoft previews Windows 7, and it looks like… Vista”, Computerworld: “Is Windows 7’s new UAC just lipstick on a pig?” and “Windows 7, Office 14 to create bigger lame ducks than George W. Bush.”

Tuesday: Microsoft also announced its cloud computing platform summed up best at ZDNet: “Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform: A guide for the perplexed.” No licensing, pricing and due date information. This for something that Amazon has offered with a Linux based solution for over a year on the EC2 Cloud.

We aren’t even half way through the week yet and Microsoft is either getting battered or following technical trends already blazed by Linux. In contrast, Linux is having a great week.

Monday: The New York Times shows how Linux may actually ship on more desktops next year that Windows, albeit in an unconventional way with instant on boot. “Instant-on machines represent a new opportunity for the open-source Linux operating system, which can compete with Windows.”

Wednesday: HP reveals it is rolling out a Linux based Notebook computer with Linux. Their HP Mini 1000 with MIE (Mobile Internet Experience) a Linux based OS will ship with a $379 price point. They are following moves by Dell, Asus, Lenovo, and others to ship low price Linux PC’s. It is also worth noting that Microsoft had to extend the life of Windows XP in order to even compete in this market.

Thursday: Intel and Taiwan announces they are teaming up on mobile Linux development lab. The lab will work on creating Moblin based devices in one of the most promising categories of computing.

Linux on more laptops than Windows? Dell, HP, Asus, Lenovo and others shipping Linux desktops at unheard of prices? Microsoft stuck in a rut needing to follow rather than lead? And I only hit on a few things going on in Linux this week. As we reach the end of 2008, 2009 is shaping up to be a pretty good year for Linux.

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Intel announced today (Thursday) its plans to partner with the Taiwanese government and invest in the island nation’s IT industry to launch an Open Source Software Development Center for mobile devices. Building on Taiwan’s undisputed role as a leading center for creating connected consumer devices, CEO Paul Otellini indicated that Intel had signed an agreement with the Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA). MOEA and Intel will establish a center for enabling Moblin and other OSS optimized for devices based on the Intel Atom. At the same time, Intel Capital will invest NT$386M (US$11.5M) in Taiwanese carrier VMAX to support deployment of Taiwan’s first mobile WiMax network in the first half of 2009.

This move by Intel is good for everyone: good for Intel, who is working with a large ecosystem with its recently-launched mobile/embedded Atom architecture CPUs. It’s good for Taiwanese OEMs, who already have launched Atom-based devices, but who crave availability of a richer Linux-based software stack and more opportunity for localization and local value-added software. It’s good for Taiwanese end-users, who will enjoy high-bandwidth wireless internet access, with new options for data and streaming media. And it’s good for the “rest of us”, since Taiwan-local rollouts of new concepts and products pave the way for cost-down, high-volume versions of the same technologies and devices in short order around the world.

For both fans and critics of the MID concept and form factor, this double-whammy announcement means that the MID is here to stay. Industry analysts project Atom-based MIDs will enjoy worldwide shipment of 86M+ units by 2013.

Giving the nascent MID device class firehose-level bandwidth, together with a desktop and server-compatible CPU running an open source stack, opens this converged platform to a wealth of new possibilities. Combining lower-powered Atom with Linux-based Moblin and high speed WiMAX lends solid credibility to Intel’s vision for MIDs - one that fuses long-lived, well-provisioned, connected mobile devices with always on, always available multimedia and social networking.

The best part is that this is on a completely open source stack based on mainstream Linux technology. The more successful these efforts are the stronger Linux will become in other categories of desktop computing. It seems Intel has really gotten the concept of how to work with the community and further their business goals. I suspect many of their industry counterparts are taking note.

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For those that decry the constant prediction of the “year of the Linux desktop” I am happy to say that next year Linux may actually ship on more desktops than Windows or the Mac. That is right, I said next year. What is driving this? Two words: fast boot.

Matt Richtell of the New York Times wrote a great article on Sunday about the demand for faster start up times on computers. In the story the chronicled how HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asus and a array of other PC makers are starting to develop “machines that give people access to basic functions like e-mail and a Web browser in 30 seconds or less.” Here is the interesting part: Linux is providing that access.

Ashlee Vance, also of the New York Times, did a great follow up piece on the story chronicling just how prolific this trend is becoming. He states, “Over the next few months, the instant-on technology should become mainstream. Here’s a look at what’s available and what’s coming in the instant-on market.”

The evidence is overwhelming:

“ - DeviceVM – This Silicon Valley start-up has emerged as the leading independent maker of instant-on software. H.P., Lenovo and Asus use modified versions of DeviceVM’s Splashtop software. In all cases, they provide quick access to a Web browser, instant messaging software, photos and voice over Internet protocol software. The large PC makers tend to ship Splashtop on laptops aimed at consumers.
- H.P. – Today, you can buy HP’s Envy laptop with the Instant On Solution software, which is Splashtop in disguise. In the coming months, H.P. plans to ship it on an undisclosed number of systems.
- Dell – In an unusual move, Dell has done a lot of customization work with its instant-on tools. The company plans to ship something called Latitude On with a pair of laptops. This Dell-made software will permit access to e-mail and the other basic functions. The software will actually run on a separate ARM processor, often found in mobile phones, rather than a standard Intel or Advanced Micro Devices chip.
- Lenovo – By early next year, Lenovo will ship a version of Splashtop on some of its consumer laptops.
- Phoenix Technologies – This software maker has been working on a downloadable software package called HyperSpace. It will let you start a Linux-based system early, while Windows boots in the background. People can then switch back and forth between both sets of software as they desire. It should be widely available in January with Phoenix charging a monthly subscription fee to the software.”

What does this mean for Linux? First it means that Linux is more central to the user experience. As the New York Times points out, this is “Microsoft potentially losing the user experience.” Linux is not only powering fastboot applications, but the Moblin project has already demonstrated a five second boot at the Linux Foundation’s recent Plumbers conference.

We may see a world at the end of next year where Linux ships on almost every notebook computer regardless of whether it is loaded with Windows. This in addition to the huge potential of the netbook, mobile internet device and mobile Linux market can mean huge and immediate inroads for a Linux desktop, albeit not in the form most people had predicted many years ago when the first “year of the Linux desktop” was declared.

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The Economics

Today the Linux Foundation issued a report looking at the value of the Linux platform in terms of code. This was an update of a 2002 study that estimated the value then at $1.2 Billion. Today’s value: $10.8 Billion. The study focused on the Fedora project, which has been a core part of Linux success in the server and desktop market place. Although it wasn’t specifically covered in this paper it is also worth applying the economics of Linux to one of the fastest growing segments of technology; mobile devices, consumer electronics and low cost netbooks. This is the future of Linux and the smart bets are leveraging a $10.8 billion investment to the hilt.

Linux is Everywhere

I am constantly amazed by how rare it is to work with any consumer electronics (CE) device that does *not* run on Linux. Other then two big markets — laptops and mobile phones, nearly every new consumer electronics device runs Linux. Sony televisions, Amazon Kindle, Dash automotive GPS, and nearly every other device you can imagine.

A CE company can either try to roll their own operating system, license a proprietary one like Windows or VXWorks, or use Linux. The reasons they use Linux are simple. It is easiest to hire people familiar with it. It supports more devices than any operating system in the history of the world. It is completely open, so if something doesn’t work, you can fix it yourself or pay someone to do it. There is amazingly great support available from mailing lists, or commercial support available at any service and price point. You can brand the device however you want. And it gives you a real Internet experience, with the capability to do any level of networking and application support.

One to Watch: Moblin

The final two frontiers for Linux in consumer electronics are mobile phones and laptops. I’d like to congratulate Google on shipping their first Linux-based phone this week. This is a great accomplishment, and Android should prove to be a major competitor in building a mobile phone ecosystem.

Another consumer electronics project I’m excited about is Moblin. Though initially focused on NetBooks (i.e., small laptops), I see Moblin as creating the ideal platform for a large universe of devices from MIDs to in car entertainment and more. Unlike Android, which uses Linux at the base but rewrote most of the upper level software, Moblin leverages the enormously valuable work of the entire Linux ecosystem (that $10.8 billion). But they do this while working to fix the small bugs and incompatibilities that can still cause frustrations in desktop Linux. And by working within the Linux ecosystem, the improvements they are making to a whole array of different packages and libraries will be passed back to the upstream authors, so that all Linux users can take advantage of them and adding even more value to that multi-billion dollar pie.

In a couple years, I expect Moblin to be playing the role of a standard platform for netbooks, MIDs, consumer electronics, and more. Already there is an incredible ecosystem around the platform with hundreds of ISV’s, dozens of hardware OEMs, and many Linux operating system vendors on board. Given the compelling economics of their approach I think it will be harder and harder to find devices that don’t use it in the future.

George Gilder wrote an enormously influential article in 1993 titled Into the Fibersphere. He stated:

” As industry guru Andrew Rappaport has pointed out, electronic designers now treat transistors as virtually free. Indeed, on memory chips, they cost some 400 millionths of a cent. To waste time or battery power or radio frequencies may be culpable acts, but to waste transistors is the essence of thrift. Today you use millions of them slightly to enhance your TV picture or to play a game of solitaire or to fax Doonsbury to Grandma. If you do not use transistors in your cars, your offices, your telephone systems, your design centers, your factories, your farm gear, or your missiles, you go out of business. If you don’t waste transistors, your cost structure will cripple you. Your product will be either too expensive, too slow, too late, or too low in quality.”

The same is becoming true with Linux, and for one of the fastest growing segments of computing, the project to watch is Moblin.

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Yesterday, Linux Foundation member IBM announced its adoption of a new
corporate policy that will govern its global participation in the standards
development process. It also revealed a list of standards reform
recommendations generated through a discussion among 70 standards experts
from around the world, and called upon all stakeholders, from the open
source community, to vendors, to government, to academia, to join in a
dialogue that can both raise the bar for standards development as well as
facilitate the implementation of open interoperability standards in open
source software.

The IBM policy details a set of principles that are intended to regulate
its participation in standards development, as well as a list of action
items that will direct its efforts in seeking the reform of that process.
IBM’s goals in this pursuit will be to seek greater transparency, openness
and inclusiveness in standards development, and also to facilitate the
integration of that process with the development of open source software.

The Linux Foundation applauds this action, and supports IBM’s call for
raising the bar in the standards development process. In particular, the
Foundation, which uniquely supports both open source software and open
standards, appreciates IBM’s leadership in recognizing the importance of
promoting the advancement of these two essential technology tools in a
coordinated way. Submarine patents, overly restrictive intellectual
property policies, and undue vendor influence are of equal concern to
proponents of both open standards and open source software, and the best
solutions will be those that address the needs of both disciplines.

Like IBM, the Foundation is working for similar goals. Accordingly, the
Foundation calls upon others to support the principles laid out in the IBM
announcement, and make common cause with this worthwhile effort.

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Sometimes a consortium can play a smaller supportive role that is really powerful. Helping people and organizations to pull together in the same direction can accomplish amazing things. It’s very gratifying.

The Linux Foundation, in concert with several well-known industry names (hint: they start with letters like I and G), has hired a key contributor to the Linux kernel development community, the system administrator for kernel.org. It’s an important position. kernel.org is crucial to the Linux kernel’s collaborative development environment. It is the actual physical space — in cyberspace — where kernel developers get their work done. Without it, nothing happens.

What is kernel.org? It’s not for beginners, but it’s an essential resource for those perfecting the current and building the future versions of Linux itself. Keeping the kernel.org site running smoothly is crucial to connecting Linux’s famously geographically dispersed contributors. It is the primary site for the Linux kernel source and git, the distributed revision control / software management project created by Linus Torvalds. The site is mirrored around the world through the help of countless others. From the Kernel.org namespace you can jump to FAQs, mailing lists, site updates, comments, and a lot more.

Making sure that this resource is available is an under-appreciated but essential piece of the puzzle. Others in the industry saw this need and partnered with us to fund this full-time position.

Fundamentally, this is why the Linux Foundation exists: To provide (some of) the services that an open community needs but that no corporation could provide directly. We marshal the forces of our members — they would have a hard time hiring the person directly — who are extremely generous and supportive. That’s putting money where your mouth is. The model works.

John ‘Warthog9′ Hawley joined the kernel.org administrator team in 2005 as one of the five kernel.org administrators. Working on system operations, the wikis, the kernel.org Gitweb, the GeoDNS patches to ISC’s BIND name server and a number of other things for kernel.org. His other OSS exploits include working on Syslinux, OpenSSI, and PXE Knife a set of interfaces around common utilities and diagnostics tools needed by an average systems administrator. In his free time he enjoys cooking extravagant meals and watching bad movies.

I expect now that John is in a full time role there will be a long list of projects coming in from the kernel team.

Incidentally, Linux kernel developers may be flung far and wide around the globe most of the time, but a chunk of them with be in Portland, OR next week for the Kernel Summit 2008. If you are interested in receiving information on the event, please contact angela (at) linux-foundation.org.

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This week week we saw news centered around two studies on desktop computing trends: one from Forrester Research and one from IDC. Both reports come from highly regarded firms and both seem to point to contradictory trends.

Bad news first. Linux fans are now being compared to Cubs fans. For you non-sports enthusiasts, the cubs haven’t won a world series since 1908. According to Ben Gray of Forrester, “as optimistic as Linux enthusiasts are and will forever remain, they’re beginning to sound like Cubs fans with the never-ending hope of ‘There’s always next year.’” The report cites survey research showing Windows Vista migrations as “ramping up” in the enterprise while Mac makes inroads and Linux continues to muddle along. The report states that “IT operations professionals need to prepare for a more decisive shift in their desktop operating system (OS) strategy.” In other words, when it comes to Microsoft Vista it is time to fish or cut bait. Tough advice in slow economic times.

Which leads me to the good news. IDC released a report this week citing Linux growth in a sector of computing which I have written about at length for over a year; the low cost netbook. According to IDC, “[the] PC Market Continues To Resist Economic Pressures With A Boost From Low Cost Portable PCs.” Most of these PC’s are Linux based with a smattering of Windows XP based netbooks as well (Vista doesn’t run well on these light weight PC’s). It seems while Forrester is predicting a gloomy future for Linux on the desktop, IDC is reporting on growth in a sector of computing where Linux does very well.

What are we to believe? First, both firms are calling the data like they see it. Forrester did a survey of their clients which are largely enterprise users of technolgy - typically the slowest to change. In fact, they even admit it, “Microsoft released Windows Vista to the general public more than 18 months ago — which is typically how long IT departments need to test their applications and hardware against any new OS.” IDC on the other hand is looking at quarterly PC tracking data which tends to pick up on rapidly developing trends in the market. IDC’s Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker states, “We continue to see a rapid transition to Portable PCs around the world, even as economic pressures rise. The trend reflects the increasing importance of computing, not just in the home or office, but as an integrated part of our lives. Falling prices, more design choice and competition for PC makers to capture this market continue to drive a rapid transition.”

According to Forrester there may not be a sea change to Linux desktops in the immediate future in the slower moving enterprise. However, in the broader world of PC sales it is worth noting that Linux based portable netbooks may be a leading indicator of things to come. Plus, from the looks of things the Cubs are having a pretty good year so far.

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First let me state the obvious. If Google’s new browser is successful then the desktop operating system just became a lot less important. This is great news for Linux.

That begs the question: If Google’s new browser isn’t even available on Linux, why is this great news for Linux? Because in a world where most people access their applications through a browser it makes little sense to have PC’s that are loaded with a heavy and bloated operating system. In particular in makes a LOT less sense for people to PAY for a heavy and bloated operating system. Count on seeing a Linux version of the Google browser very soon.

Michael Arrington over at Techcrunch said it best.

“When combined with Gears, which allows for offline access (see what MySpace did with Gears to understand how powerful it is), Chrome is nothing less than a full on desktop operating system that will compete head on with Windows.”

Most people are looking at the Google announcement as bringing much needed competition to the web browser front between Microsoft’s IE, Apple’s Safari, and Mozilla’s Firefox. This misses the bigger point. The real battle is about what the future development platform for mobile devices, personal computers, set top boxes, and more.

The last several decades of computing have been ruled by the owner of the development platform. Windows has been successful because the large majority of business applications and consumer applications ran exclusively on that platform. If you wanted to use an accounting application or automate your sales force you needed to run Windows software on your desktop to do it.

Internet applications are changing all of this by making the need for desktop specific code irrelevant. There is an entire generation growing up spending the majority of their time only using a web browser. They are on Facebook, their email is Yahoo mail or Gmail, they shop on Amazon, they use Google apps, they run web based instant messaging clients. That generation will just as easily spend their workdays logged into Salesforce.com or other hosted applications in the Internet cloud.

How does this relate to Linux? The future of the desktop client is moving towards accessing cloud-based applications in a browser through multiple devices and multiple mediums. Wireless phones, set top boxes, netbooks, desktop PC’s over a variety of networks is the future. The personal computer is not the future; it is hundreds of devices running on dozens of chip sets, with thousands of different components that is the future. This is a world where the personal computer starts to be priced and feel more like a cell phone and a cell phone looks more like a PC. In this world Linux is really the only answer. It supports every imaginable chip set. It is free. It can be custom branded. And no single entity can control it and thereby become a bottleneck to innovation.

Google’s vision is perfectly aligned with this world. They have made their browser open source and based on industry standards. They want to maximize the ways in which people can use the browser to create interesting and unexpected applications. They want to make sure that the doorway to the Internet, the web browser, remains free and competitive because for them the internet IS their killer application. Firefox has already gone far to this end and Google will inject even more energy into a competitive open browser. As long as more people use the web Google becomes for successful because search becomes more valuable for them.

Good for the internet. Good for Google. Good for Linux. Not bad.

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The Linux Foundation will be hosting our first ever End User Collaboration Summit this October in New York.

This forum is designed for sophisticated users of Linux who will be able share best practices about how they are using Linux and speak directly with the core developers of the Linux platform.

A big part of our mission is “translating” Linux. It doesn’t get any more direct than connecting key Linux developers and end users. This event provides an opportunity to actually see how technology is developed today by some really talented and dedicated people.

In addition to panel discussions, Open Spaces sessions, and End User Lightning Talks — among others — the two keynotes are from Anthony Williams, author of “Wikinomics, How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything,” and Jon Corbet, Editor of Linux Weekly News. We will also hear from Ron Hovsepian, the CEO of Novell and Paul Cormier, the President of Red Hat.

It’s by invitation, but registration is free, in keeping with the idea of having it open to end users. You can request an invitation by filling out the form here.

I can guarantee it’ll be a fascinating and extremely useful two days. We look forward to seeing you.

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Declaring victory for the Linux desktop at the end of the day will based upon looking at market penetration of Linux based clients vs. Windows and other operating systems. I believe this is still the best measure but we may finally be able to declare this year the breakout of the Linux desktop.

When looking at operating system software adoption it is important to look at trends and not a single break through event that will signal that “we have made it.” It is kind of like economic forecasting – you look at a lot of leading indicators to decide whether we are heading towards an expansion or a recession; inflation, interest rates, productivity, employment rates, etc. It is worth applying this logic when looking at the Linux desktop. Based on just a cursory glance of news this week it is clear that all leading indicators suggest a significant expansion on the horizon.

Let’s look at each of these factors individually:

1. The Usability Breakthrough; the Linux desktop has finally reached functional equivalence with Windows and Mac OS. The perfect balance of simplicity and flexibility is still being refined, but for anyone who has used Ubuntu, OpenSuse, Fedora, GoS, Zonbu, or an Asus EEE PC; it is clear that a Linux desktop is able to match Apple or Windows when it comes to functionality and usability.

2. Device support. Long a complaint of the Linux desktop user, we are finally seeing broad coverage in driver support for almost every kind of hardware available. Kernel space has really licked almost all of these with only a few small holdouts in wireless and video. Now the focus is on user space configuration tools that enable Linux users to get full functionality out of the many devices supported on the platform.

3. Economics; In order to grow the PC market beyond the saturated markets in the west, the industry is moving towards low cost PC’s to grow the overall market place. Much of this growth is coming in from Asia where manufacturers are putting the squeeze on the high license fees Microsoft charges by opting for Linux instead. This year we are seeing Linux based PC’s from almost every major manufacturer including Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo and more. This price competition favors Linux heavily because Microsoft will always be reluctant to give up their cash cow of high license fees.

4. The Netbook breakthrough; The New York Times reported last week at Intel’s developer conference “Dozens and dozens of netbooks were shown,” and “computer makers saw for the first time “just how many competitors they have.”” According to a research analyst in Times article, these devices “could cost the same as a cell phone – or lower.” This is going to open huge new markets for Linux based devices.

5. The Seinfeld factor. Microsoft Vista is a gift to Linux. Windows is having a brand meltdown. Users are unsatisfied with the OS so much so that Microsoft is trying to enlist an American icon to help change peoples minds. While Seinfeld is great, Microsoft should know that the quickest way to ruin a brand is to increase advertising for a bad product.

6. The move to mobile. It is a quickly becoming a foregone conclusion that a large portion, if not a majority of users will access the internet through mobile devices in the future. The Linux desktop benefits from this. Google’s Android platform is based on the Linux Kernel, the LiMo Foundation’s efforts use glibc, Gnome, the kernel and more. Nokia has Linux based offerings. All of this will bring more developers, both commercial and non-commercial to the Linux desktop party.

7. Web 2.0. The fact that the desktop itself is less relevant is making Linux more relevant than ever. In a world where most people access their favorite applications through a browser it makes little sense to have an expensive and bloated OS underneath. Linux is really the only option here as Microsoft is unable to innovate and Apple rules the high end of the market.

8. Business users are starting to care. IBM’s recent announcement of a Lotus enabled Linux client shows that big business is finally waking up to the value of a Linux desktop effort. IBM in particular is worth paying attention to here. When they get behind a platform it can move markets.

There continues to be challenges. Lack of games on the Linux platform continues to be a weakness, Microsoft dominates this market and leverages their experience with the Xbox and their Xbox live service. The lack of availability of Microsoft Office or a reasonably compatible Office alternative is a subject to long to write about here but obviously hurts Linux in the short run. Finally, the need for pan industry cooperation along application standards is critical. The Linux desktop may constantly divide efforts along incompatible versions of the OS and prevent a unified front against Microsoft.

At the Linux Foundation we continue to see big changes afoot enabling the Linux desktop. We continue to support educating makers of devices about how to write drivers for Linux, we continue to support improving printing on Linux through our open printing project, we are looking to bring new developers to the platform through the Linux Developer Network and continue to provide a framework for desktop and mobile standardization through the Linux Standard Base.

Why is the desktop important? Because it is symbolic. It excites programmers, it is tangible to everyone, it easy accessible and easily understood by all. Linux is finally in a position to provide a choice to Microsoft’s long held monopoly. We should never lose site of the importance of inspiring people about just how far an open operating system can go.

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